Fifteen years ago if you wanted to write an application that would run on over 90% of the world’s personal computers, you only needed to target one OS. Today, to do the same, you’d need to develop for ten - Windows, Linux, OS X, Android, iOS, webOS, BlackBerry OS, Symbian, MeeGo and of course, the web.

You don’t get order without first having chaos and you don’t end up with consolidation without first going through fragmentation. The PC era was dominated by Microsoft and Intel. The transition to ubiquitous computing allowed for many more competitors, which results in a great deal of fragmentation up front.

The goal however, is the same. Every player in this space wants to be what Microsoft was during the PC era. Even the actions are the same. There’s no interoperability between platforms, there are closed door negotiations and exclusivity agreements resulting in a number of alliances that are not easily broken.

Microsoft’s leverage is existing revenue stream. Its partners want to continue to receive favorable terms for existing PC shipments and thus tend to avoid embracing Google or other non-Microsoft OSes too eagerly. Google’s leverage is the promise of a very un-Microsoft future. Lower costs, friendlier terms and the ability for its partners to get in on the ground floor of something big. Neither approach is guaranteed and aligning yourself with one company is risky. The rest of the players are vertically integrated hardware vendors that are trying to mimic the success that Apple has had with iOS and OS X (e.g. HP/Palm, RIM). MeeGo is the only exception there as Intel/Nokia want it to be treated as an alternative to Android.

Then there’s the web. The most universal of all of the platforms, the web isn’t controlled or dominated by any one company. Great open source browser projects have ensured that nearly all of the platforms I listed above have great ways to access the web, and most can run any app you’ve got on the web.

PCs are the more traditional portal to the web. Sure they can do much more than run a web browser, but as web applications and services grow more powerful, the list of things you have to do outside of a browser window shrinks. This is especially true for mainstream consumers who check their email in a web browser, get their news in a web browser, chat in a web browser, watch videos in a web browser and listen to music, all within a browser window. In fact, the netbook was born out of the idea that you don’t need a huge transistor budget to provide the silicon that can drive a browser and the apps you run on top of it.

Fifteen years ago most households had one computer, if that. These days you might have five within a single room (desktop, notebook, smartphone, media streaming box and tablet). Households didn’t become infinitely more wealthy over the past two decades - the cost of these secondary and tertiary computing devices just dropped. Moore’s Law enables two things: more processing power at the same cost, or equivalent processing power at a lower cost. Iterate the Law a few times and you’ll eventually be able to create silicon that’s fast enough for specific tasks at a very low cost. Shrinking transistor feature sizes, costs and high levels of silicon integration gave us the fast enough ARM based SoCs that enable today’s awesome smartphones, as well as the Atom processor that created the netbook industry.

Interestingly enough, the problems that impact the high end of the market also impact this fast enough segment of the market. At the high end we’ve got tons of compute, storage and IOPS thanks to multicore CPUs/GPUs, low memory costs and SSDs, but we don’t have a lot of software to really tax it all. Believe it or not, the same gap exists at the low end. The difference is that while Atom is more than fast enough to run a web browser, it’s typically burdened by a heavy weight OS that hampers the user experience.

Microsoft’s Inaction & Learning from Our Mistakes
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  • Tleilaxu Ghola - Thursday, December 09, 2010 - link

    :-D

    Out of the thousands of posts I have mulled through today throughout the internet, this post takes over the top spot as my post of the month. This thread makes me lol, literally.
    Reply
  • mrBug - Sunday, December 12, 2010 - link

    Hehe obviously the stable version will be Cr-52 :-D Reply
  • seapeople - Thursday, December 09, 2010 - link

    12 inches? Come on, that's way too big. This thing is basically junk until they come out with a 7" version. Who wants to lug around a giant 12" computer all day? A significant portion of the population has bone cancer, some of them children. Why won't someone PLEASE think of the children! Reply
  • Griswold - Friday, December 10, 2010 - link

    Indeed. Unfortunately, Acer and Samsung will be doing their usual thing and sell us these cheap-ass looking, glossy toys instead. Reply
  • efeman - Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - link

    http://www.google.com/chromeos/pilot-program-cr48....

    Anand, regarding the drive: the line "What did we leave out? Spinning disks, ..." in the above link implies an SSD.
    Reply
  • kepstin - Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - link

    I've heard from someone I know at Google that not only does the pilot laptop use solid state storage, but all notebooks sold that want to use the Google Chrome branding will be required to have solid state, in order to meet the boot time targets. No idea if this will actually hold true, when the manufacturers want to start cutting costs... Reply
  • Taft12 - Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - link

    An OEM laptop HD bottoms out at about $40 at retail (lower for large PC hardware players). I'm not sure an 8GB SSD with terrible performance like the one in my Dell Mini 9 would be any more and might even be less. I like the direction this is pushing the market! Reply
  • Anand Lal Shimpi - Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - link

    Fixed! Thanks :) Reply
  • Roland00Address - Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - link

    Why would this computer be more advantageous than any other netbook and a simple dual boot (7 Starter and Chrome)? Reply
  • Taft12 - Wednesday, December 08, 2010 - link

    Your dollars that would go towards the Microsoft tax instead go towards a modem and data transfer. This is the easiest decision I've ever had to make. Reply

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