First Thoughts

As the XO-1 is still in beta production and beta field testing, there are still many questions left to answer; we're looking right now at what can be, not what will be. At the forefront of questions are the intangibles, such as if the educational theory behind the OLPC organization is sound and these laptops will make as much of a difference as the organization believes it will. We're optimists and believe from our own experiences that the laptops will help out, but we also don't hold PhD's in education, so time will tell.

Education still remains as one of the greatest factors in creating and ensuring prosperity, and expanding it is one of the best ways to improve a developing country. At the very least the OLPC organization will succeed in making information more available; the deciding factor will be how it's used to improve education.

On a more technical note, there are still some issues we've seen with the XO-1 and its surrounding infrastructure that need to be worked out. The first XO-1's will likely be going to nations with some of the required infrastructure to use them, so it's not power that worries as much as it is internet access, which is especially sporadic in Africa. Full utilization of the XO-1 will require regular internet access, and this isn't something the OLPC organization has strongly focused on addressing. We'd expect many initial sites to be using either satellite or telephone connectivity.

We'd also like to reiterate our concerns about the software we're seeing at this time. On paper the software is great, but it's hard to translate that promise into the real world when the demonstrations we're looking at aren't showcasing the full software suite and there's so little time left. The hardware on the other hand is quite impressive on paper, and the field test results we've seen back that up. The only catch for the hardware will be getting the price of the unit down to the $100 goal from the current $175.

Last but not least, there are also practical issues of abuse with the XO-1 that bear mentioning. It was widely reported last month as offbeat humor that some of the XO-1 units being field tested were being used for browsing pornographic material, to which the OLPC organization has decided to include filtering on the shipping models. This still leaves open other concerns such as spamming and scamming, though the number of primary school students capable of and interested in such feats would naturally be low. Instead the issue will be adults who get their hands on the laptops, something the unique green design is supposed to deter through shaming since it would imply the laptop was stolen from a child.

Shifting away from the OLPC initiative for a moment, this represents the emergence of a new market that all sides believe is ripe for development. For the CPU industry, this may be a new front in the battle between Intel and AMD, vying for the new bottom end of the market along with the traditional top end. Although AMD is in the better initial position, Intel is plenty capable as we've seen in shifting resources toward solving new problems, so they are by no means out of the picture. For Intel this would merely be icing on the cake, given their current control of the processor market; for AMD the future success for the company is at least partially dependent on rapid growth here.

As for the success of the OLPC initiative and the XO-1, with production starting later this year we should have an idea soon of how much of an impact the initiative will really have. There is precedent for great change, and access to technology can be a catalyst. Time will tell if OLPC can make that happen for the developing countries.

The Bigger Picture
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  • thesafetyisoff - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    A few years back there was a scorpion epidemic in a town in South America. The government hit upon the brilliant idea of importing hundreds of chickens, which prey on scorpions, to take care of the pests. One month later there were still plenty of scorpions stinging people, because the villagers had eaten all of the chickens.

    Providing laptops to people who don't have electricity, can't read, and have no interest in education is a complete waste of money. Six months after this program is launched most of them will be broken, stolen, or sold. And the ones that are left will probably be under-utilized.
  • Ryan Smith - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    I think you(and everyone else who has made similar posts) make a good point, but are also in the process missing part of the point of OLPC in the first place.

    It is true that a lot of effort has been made to design the thing for use in extremely rugged/rural/poor conditions, but the fact of the matter is that's not where the XO-1 is going to end up at the beginning. Most of the nations planning on ordering the laptops are all nations in later states of developing, as opposed to being entirely undeveloped. These people have access to the basics such as food and medical care, and a lesser developed power and communication grid(e.g. you have power at school, but maybe not at home). In these situations there's no needs problem to solve, so the only real issue is of education: will the laptops provide the educational benefit the OLPC organization desires?

    By the time the organization is distributing the laptops to the poorest nations and poorest children, we should have an answer to that question, which will make going forward a lot easier.
  • Sunrise089 - Thursday, August 9, 2007 - link

    Ok - exactly. The laptop isn't going into the bush or the desert - it's going to places that can't afford $500, but maybe can afford $175. The problem is THE #^%$#& DESIGN OF THE LAPTOP IS BASED AROUND IT GOING SOMEWHERE IT'S NEVER GOING TO GO!

    Just looking at this thing, it's terribly obvious that some altruistic but naive designer pictured village children in sub-Saharan Africa or SE Asia using this, and then totally missed the point that the internet connectivity and power access just wouldn't exist.

    Then people got a clue, and realized that a cheap laptop would work great in Eastern Europe, or heck, even sub-middle-class America. The problem is those markets need power and storage. They don't need wifi webs or waterproof casings.

    I would ask one question to the project if I were given the chance - how does this ridiculous laptop actually serve the needs of the people who will actually be able to make use of it better than a used $175 laptop? The answer is it simply doesn't.
  • headbox - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    These are people that can't even feed themselves. A laptop will be as useful as a space suit. In Zimbabwe they kicked out all the white farmers to give to the "rightful owners" (because racial diversity is only expected when it means white countries) and the end result was mass starvation because they didn't know basic farming. Do we really expect people living in the stone age to make the leap to the modern era? It took thousands of years of social and technological advancements to get to where we are today... and now we expect an illiterate 3rd worlder to watch an animation on a laptop to bring them up to speed? LOL!
  • Lemonjellow - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    quote:

    History - animated battles and speeches by participants ... etc. All of these will hold a child attention much better than a book.


    Yes, because animated battles and speeches by the people in those battles can teach children about the effect of the Anopheles Mosquito, steam locomotion, or industrialization on global imperialism and/or the effects of capitalism on the developing worlds in which these children live!

    Knowing about a battle means nothing if not taken in the context of it's cause, impacts, and there-for, what-for ,why-for, who-for, how-for, and all-fours (oh, wait no that last one is part of the porn feature)...

    While a striped down not-quite-laptop is handy it will never take the place of a good teacher and a well written book, but it is better than the alternative......
    of nothing at all...

  • acronos - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    Trying to take notes on a standard laptop is foolish (not quite so bad on a tablet pc.) The advantage of laptops in the classroom is to complement or even replace books. A truly good teacher is rare. However, software written and developed by a truly good teacher and development team scaled across thousands of schools can make a fairly positive difference. Teachers could choose competing software, similar to the way they choose books now, that complement their teaching style. Very few subjects would not benefit from this. Language - practice pronunciation. math - some of the best ways to learn early math already exist in the form of video games, science - see discovery channel, History - animated battles and speeches by participants ... etc. All of these will hold a child attention much better than a book. In addition, teaching how to truly use google could totally change society.
  • slashbinslashbash - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    "the unit can safely be hooked up to any number of power sources, including solar or peddles."

    peddle = to travel around selling wares
    pedal = a crankshaft system designed to be operated by the feet
  • saechaka - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    i thought i read that using the kids were using these laptops to view porn. i guess it's good we are giving them a way to see them naked ladies or guys.

    anyways, my point is that i don't think having a laptop will have a big an impact as having books and good teachers. i'd rather see the money on these laptops being spent on teachers and books
  • Roy2001 - Thursday, August 9, 2007 - link

    I agree with you. Good teachers are more important.
  • Verdant - Wednesday, August 8, 2007 - link

    As someone who has tried to use a laptop in a classroom, I find the usefulness of each student having one minimal. Input for most subjects is not natural at all with a keyboard (want to sketch a diagram or anything other than basic text and bullets? - takes more effort than doing so by hand)

    Not to say that OLPC is not a valid project, just that people need to be a bit more aware of the fact that it will not perform miracles, and I don't think they are that valuable in a lecture situation.

    The tablet pc is a good step, but the software available is limited, and such systems are clearly not fiscally feasible for something like OLPC.

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