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Original Link: https://www.anandtech.com/show/10512/price-check-q3-2016-dram-prices-down-over-20-since-early-2015



Slow sales in the first half of 2016 have negatively affected suppliers of virtually all of PCs, tablets and smartphone components. Producers of DRAM typically suffer more than others when it comes to pricing, since computer memory is considered a commodity and its quotes mostly depend on supply and demand rather than on technology advantages. Since early 2016, prices of DDR3 and DDR4 chips have declined by over 20%, according to DRAMeXchange (a division of TrendForce that tracks DRAM market). Despite the fact that it is slightly costlier to produce DDR4 memory because of slightly larger die sizes, at times the physical DDR4 modules can actually be cheaper than DDR3 ones. Since producers like Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix are not happy with the current situation on the market, observers have reported that the big three intend to implement a plan to control supply.

DDR3 Vs. DDR4: Crossover Is Nearing

The average spot price of one 4 Gb DDR4-2133 memory chip was $1.751 in late-July, according to DRAMeXchange (most information in this piece is from this source unless otherwise stated). For comparison, in Feb '16 the equivalent chip was $1.814. Going back further, in Dec '15 they were $2.221, and in late June '15 up at $3.618.

As it turns out, a 4 Gb DDR4-2133 memory IC (integrated circuit) is nearly 50% cheaper in the last 13 months and around 22% cheaper since the start of the year. The average contract price of a DDR4-2133 DRAM chip was $1.31 in the second half of June, down from $1.63 in the second half of January. Meanwhile, in the recent months DRAMeXchange has begun to track spot prices of 8 Gb DDR4-2133 chips. Right now one chip costs $3.633 on average, down from $4.688 in mid-April.

Spot prices of DDR3 memory are dropping fast as well. A 4 Gb DDR3-1600 memory IC costs $1.675 in Taiwan, down from $1.878 in December and $2.658 in late June '15. In about a year, a 4 Gb DDR3 chip is 37% cheaper, mainly due to slow demand for electronics. 8 Gb DDR3-1600 memory chips are considerably more expensive than DDR4 chips of the same capacity, also tied to demand. At the time of writing (7/22/16), one of such chips cost $4.96.

Right now, the spot price of 4 Gb DDR4 memory chips is a little higher than the price of 4 Gb DDR3 DRAM ICs. The gap is only around three cents, but still volatile and we would not make any definitive conclusions at this point as to the reasons why. Back in June, DDR4 chips were cheaper than DDR3 ICs (in fact, they were slightly cheaper than DDR3 chips throughout the whole month) and we observed a similar situation in March, but eventually DDR4 regained its price advantage over its predecessor because the demand for such type of DRAM has grown as Intel is ramping up its DDR4-supporting platforms. It is unclear whether leading DRAM IC producers are now deliberately making more DDR4 chips, such that the supply of such memory exceeds demand. If this is the case, then we are observing the inevitable DDR3/DDR4 price crossover point. If this is not, then, DDR4 will regain its price premium over DDR3 in the coming weeks because more systems are adopting the newer type of memory.

It should be obvious that prices of DRAM ICs directly affect the prices of actual memory modules used by PC makers. In the second half of April '16, one 4 GB DDR4-2133 SO-DIMM was priced at $13 on contract basis, down from $15.50 in the second half of January. Meanwhile, the contract price of one 4 GB DDR3-1600 SO-DIMM dropped to $12.50 (down from $15.25 in January, 2016).

It is noteworthy that starting from early June prices of DDR3 and DDR4 memory have been slowly increasing. Market observers believe that this is happening because DRAM makers are switching to production of server-class and LPDDR memory, reducing supply of commodity DRAMs ahead of the back-to-school season. Nonetheless, it should be observed that in the last couple of years nothing could stop memory prices from coming down. At various times it looked like they had stabilized or even increased, but in the end, they just continued their slump.

Now, let’s take a look what is going on in the U.S. retail.



JEDEC and Near-JEDEC DDR4 Pricing

Traditionally, we have started our observations of DDR4 retail prices with Kingston’s HyperX Fury Black DDR4-2133/CL14 2x8 GB kit (HX421C14FBK2/16), which is a typical enthusiast-class memory module set used by both system integrators and DIYers. Let's start with them today as well.

Kingston’s HyperX Fury Black DDR4-2133/CL14 2x8 GB kit (HX421C14FBK2/16)

In late February, such kit used to cost $69.94 at Amazon (based on data from CamelCamelCamel, which tracks prices of various items at Amazon and its partners). Right now, the dual-channel set of DRAM modules is priced at $83.43 at Amazon and is absent from Newegg. This is a very recent price hike from around $67.

Given this rather unexpected price hike, it is highly likely that the kit is either in short supply at Amazon, or Kingston has ceased to produce this product and is readying a newer version. This sometimes happens when module manufacturers switch DRAM IC suppliers, or adopt newer chips. In any case, we decided to take a look at other affordable DDR4-2133 offerings.

 

G.Skill's Ripjaws V DDR4-2133/CL14 2x8 GB kit (F4-2133C15D-16GVR)

G.Skill is a supplier primarily known for its ultra-high-end DRAM modules with extreme frequencies. However, the company also sells a lot of mainstream products. For example, its Ripjaws V DDR4-2133/CL15 2x8 GB kit (F4-2133C15D-16GVR) costs $65.95 at Amazon and $57.99 at Newegg. According to PriceZombie, which tracks Newegg, the price of this kit has been declining for many months now, from the origianl launch price of $130 down to $58 today.

 

Crucial’s Ballistix Sport LT DDR4-2400/CL16 2x8 GB (BLS2K8G4D240FSB) kit

Another affordable DDR4 option is Crucial’s Ballistix Sport LT DDR4-2400/CL16 2x8 GB kit (BLS2K8G4D240FSB), which is available for $59.58 from Amazon. The kit used to cost over $100 just several months ago, but rapid declines of DDR4 costs and prices forced Crucial (and its owner Micron) to reduce the price of the product quite significantly.

In any case, it is now possible to get 16 GB of DDR4 memory for less than $65, which is impressive because just over a year ago such dual-channel kits used to cost well over $120.



High-Speed DDR4 Pricing

Coming up next are higher-speed DDR4 modules. In fact, the difference between prices of DDR4-2133/2400 devices and DDR4-3000 modules is relatively small. The latter retail for around $65 to $80 while delivering considerably higher official rated performance than the officially supported frequencies by today’s processors (meaning modules with 2133 and 2400 MT/s data rates).

G.Skill's Ripjaws V DDR4-3000/CL15 2x8 GB (F4-3000C15D-16GVGB) Kit

For example, G.Skill's Ripjaws V DDR4-3000/CL15 2x8 GB kit (F4-3000C15D-16GVGB) costs $61.99 at Newegg and $72.79 at Amazon.

 

Patriot’s Viper 4 DDR4-3000/CL16 2x8 GB (PV416G300C6K) Kit

Meanwhile, Patriot’s Viper 4 DDR4-3000/CL16 16 GB (2x8 GB) kit (PV416G300C6K) can be purchased for $79.99 at Amazon, down from over $100 several months ago (but up from $63.99 in June). DDR4-3000 kits from companies like Crucial, Corsair, Kingston cost about the same, or they are only slightly pricier. Nonetheless, they are all lower than the prices six months ago.

 

 

G.Skill’s Ripjaws V DDR4-3200/CL16 16 GB (2×8 GB) Kits

Starting at DDR4-3200, memory sticks for overclockers get somewhat more expensive: the most affordable models retail for $75 to $90. This happens because not all DRAM chips can operate at such data rates. Still, if you want extra frequency without major overprices, DDR4 kits rated for 3200 MT/s are products to consider. Moreover, prices of such products decline pretty fast as well, as shown by G.Skill’s Ripjaws V DDR4-3200/CL16 16 GB (2×8 GB) kits (F4-3200C16D-16GVK and F4-3200C16D-16GVGB) These used to cost $120 in January, but which can now be purchased starting at $75.95 from a partner of Amazon or for $71.99 from Newegg.

 

G.Skill's Ripjaws V DDR4-3600/CL17 2×8 GB Kit (F4-3600C17D-16GVK)

Memory modules rated to run at 3600 MT/s cost nearly two times more than the most affordable DDR4-3000 devices: they are priced starting from $115 to $135 at Amazon and Newegg. Nonetheless, market trends fully affect prices of such modules as well: the G.Skill Ripjaws V DDR4-3600/CL17 16 GB (2×8 GB) kit (F4-3600C17D-16GVK) retailed for $275.99 in early 2016, but right now the kit is available for $126.50 at Amazon and for $115 from Newegg.

 

Corsair's Vengeance LPX and G.Skill's Trident Z at DDR4-4000+ 

DRAM modules capable of running at 4000 MT/s and higher are available only from two vendors, and they are intended mostly for hardcore enthusiasts as well as those that want to conduct extreme overclocking experiments. Prices of such modules remain very high regardless of market trends because very few DRAM ICs can operate at such frequencies - it subsequently takes module manufacturers a lot of time to cherry pick the right chips to build such modules. So far, only G.Skill has introduced a 16 GB (2×8 GB) dual-channel DDR4-4133/CL19 kit, the TridentZ F4-4133C19D-16GTZA. This product is currently available for $370 from an Amazon partner and for $220 at Newegg. It is noteworthy that retailers started to sell this kit very recently and we do not have any data regarding its price fluctuations yet.

When it comes to blazing-fast 8 GB (2×4 GB) dual-channel DDR4-4266/CL19 memory kits, there are two options available today:

G.Skill’s TridentZ F4-4266C19D-8GTZ for $338 at Amazon and for $280 at Newegg
Corsair’s Vengeance LPX CMK8GX4M2B4266C19(R) for $322.44 at Amazon and for $285 at Newegg.

These kits have gotten a fair bit cheaper recently, yet they are still very expensive.

Now, let’s take a look at larger kits designed for HEDT systems. Due to the intrinsic nature of the quad-channel memory controllers inside Core i7 Extreme Haswell-E and Broadwell-E processors, HEDT kits do not boast with extremely high frequencies. This is because it is harder to qualify four modules at high clock rates and because even at moderate frequencies such DRAM sub systems already deliver a lot of bandwidth. What memory kits for HEDT do require are sub-timings optimized for their operation in quad-channel mode: when in dual channel, some sub-timings can be tightened for better performance, which is why to ensure compatibility we suggest that users should by the full kit required for their system, rather than two separate dual-channel kits.



High Capacity and HEDT DDR4 Pricing

Now, let’s take a look at larger kits designed for HEDT systems. Due to the intracacies of the quad-channel memory controllers inside Core i7 Extreme Haswell-E and Broadwell-E processors, HEDT kits do not boast with extremely high frequencies because it is hard to run four modules at high clock-rates. Even then, at moderate frequencies such DRAM sub-systems deliver a lot of bandwidth. What memory kits for HEDT do require are sub-timings optimized for their operation in quad-channel mode since in far not all situations a pair of dual-channel kits will work fine in quad-channel mode.

Due to the fact that HEDT kits do not operate at extreme data-rates, there are a lot of options to choose from since virtually all suppliers of DRAM modules offer such kits, including Crucial, Corsair, G.Skill, Mushkin, Patriot and so on.

Crucial Ballistix Sport LT DDR4-2400/CL16 4×8 GB (BLS4K8G4D240FSC)

Crucial introduced its Ballistix Sport LT DDR4-2400/CL16 32 GB (4×8 GB) kit (BLS4K8G4D240FSC) relatively recently and back in February it used to retail for $224. Today, it is available for $139.99 at Amazon and for $139.99 at Newegg. Moreover, there are Ripjaws 4 kits from G.Skill with CL15 timings that cost $134.99 at Newegg, but which are absent at Amazon, most likely due to distribution.

Next up are 64 GB DDR4 kits for high-end desktops. Another quad-channel set of memory modules from Crucial, the Ballistix Sport LT DDR4-2400/CL16 64 GB (4×16 GB) kit (BLS4K16G4D240FSE) seems to be among the most affordable options. The product currently costs $249.99 at Amazon and the same amount of money at Newegg. When it was added to Amazon’s database in early May, it was priced at $300, but at some point later on its price declined to as low as $195 and $215.

If you want fast memory for HEDT, be ready to pay a lot for it.

 

Corsair’s Vengeance LPX DDR4-3200/CL16 (4×16 GB) CMK64GX4M4B3200C16

Corsair’s Vengeance LPX DDR4-3200/CL16 64 GB (4×16 GB) quad-channel kit (CMK64GX4M4B3200C16) currently costs $389.99 at Amazon and $389.99 at Newegg. Its competitor, the G.Skill TridentZ DDR4-3200/CL16 64 GB kit (F4-3200C16Q-64GTZKY) retails for $359.99 at Newegg. A good news is that prices of even such high-end kits are rapidly declining: back in February the Vengeance LPC 64 GB DDR4-3200 quad-channel kit cost $630.99.

 

Corsair's Dominator Platinum Quad-Channel Kits for HEDT

Meanwhile, Corsair’s top-of-the-range Dominator Platinum DDR4 modules continue to be the most expensive in the industry. The company’s Dominator Platinum DDR4-2666/CL15 64 GB (4×16 GB) quad-channel kit (CMD64GX4M4A2666C15) has MSRP of $439.99. However, its actual price at Amazon is $631.99 (up from ~$530 a month ago), hence, no changes from December 2015.

At the moment Newegg does not carry the CMD64GX4M4A2666C15 kit, but it used to cost around $430 in late June there.

By contrast, an octa-module CMD64GX4M8A2666C15 kit is priced at $540.39 (up from $475 a month ago) at Amazon, which is lower than its MSRP of $584.99.

Meanwhile, Newegg sells the Corsair Dominator Platinum DDR4-2666/CL15 64 GB (8×8 GB) kit for $469.99.

It is evident that market trends have an effect on prices of even ultra-high-end memory solutions, which is why their prices are generally declining. Nonetheless, such DRAM kits are still expensive and their exact prices can depend on supply from the manufacturer or distibution rather than the price of DRAM ICs in general. We advise to keep this in mind because fluctuations in pricing can occur on a weekly basis.



DDR3 Modules Are Getting Cheaper Too

While the transition to DDR4 is proceeding as planned, there are a number of competitive Haswell and Skylake processors that support DDR3 and DDR3L memory. Therefore it makes sense to examine retail prices of previous-generation modules in retail too. While most users building new high end systems will be leaning on DDR4, we recognise that mid-range and low cost buyers may still be buying older platforms as new. As a result, we will analyze several mainstream speed bins for DDR3.

Kingston’s HyperX Fury Low Voltage DDR3L-1866/CL11 16 GB (2×8 GB) kit (HX318LC11FBK2/16).

Intel’s newest processor line, the Skylake CPUs, officially supports DDR3L as well as DDR4 memory, if you find the appropriate motherboard. Note that it is DDR3L and not DDR3, due to the memory controller implementation. As a result, we start with Kingston’s HyperX Fury Low Voltage DDR3L-1866/CL11 16 GB (2×8 GB) kit (HX318LC11FBK2/16). Very early this year the set retailed for $90, but its price fell to $83 in February. By now, the price of this dual-channel DDR3L-1866/CL11 kit dropped to $73 at Amazon and $73 at Newegg, which is somewhat higher than the price of mainstream dual-channel DDR4-2133/CL15 or even DDR4-2400/CL16 kits, which retail for less than $65. The gap between DDR4-2133 and DDR3L-1866 got a little smaller than it was earlier this year, but being less widespread in general, the DDR3L is a bit more expensive.

 

Kingston’s HyperX Fury Black DDR3-1866/CL10 (2×8 GB) kit (HX318C10FBK2/16)

If you need to upgrade a previous-generation platform, you can opt for Kingston’s HyperX Fury Black DDR3-1866/CL10 16 GB (2×8 GB) kit (HX318C10FBK2/16), which retails for $69.99 (in line with prices of mainstream DDR4 modules). This kit used to cost around $80 early this year, so, it has got over 13% cheaper in the recent months. The dual-channel set of DDR3 memory modules briefly retailed for $53 in early June, so, it is possible that in the coming weeks its price will hit that spot again.

 

Kingston’s HyperX Savage DDR3-2133/CL11 2×8 GB kit (HX321C11SRK2/16)

If you need fast DDR3 modules, then Kingston (as well as other makers) offer DDR3-2133 DRAM sticks.

For example, Kingston’s HyperX Savage DDR3-2133/CL11 16 GB (2×8 GB) kit (HX321C11SRK2/16) costs $99.99 at Amazon, up from $90 earlier this year (but down from over $100 last year). For this amount of money, it is possible to get 16 GBs of DDR4-3200/CL17 memory.

 

Kingston’s HyperX Savage DDR3-2400/CL11 (2×8 GB) kit (HX324C11SRK2/16)

If you plan to push your DDR3 memory sub-system even further, you may want to consider Kingston’s HyperX Savage DDR3-2400/CL11 16 GB (2×8 GB) kit (HX324C11SRK2/16), which costs $100 at Amazon (so, the same amount of money as the DDR3-2133 kit). Earlier this year this dual-channel set of DRAM modules cost over $100 and its current price is around the same.



The Pickup of DDR4 vs DDR3 Slowdown

Mainstream DDR4 memory modules are getting more affordable every day. There are some exceptions, due to product transitions and other reasons, but we could observe that since January all DDR4 memory modules rated for 2133 to 3000 MT/s data-rates got at least 20% cheaper. Some dual-channel kits reduced their price by 40% and some by 50%, which is well ahead of DDR4 memory chip price declines. Due to increasing competition, module manufacturers simply have to cut their prices in a bid to maintain market share (and some large customers demand a good market share). When it comes to higher-end DDR4 kits, especially those with 3600+ data-rates, then we can notice that they are getting more affordable as well but perhaps not very rapidly due to their difficulty in manufacturing. Moreover, the price decline is step by step, and can be difficult to predict.

As for DDR3 modules, their prices have come down since early 2016 as well, primarily due to DRAM ICs getting cheaper. When it comes to a 16 GB (2×8 GB) dual-channel DDR3-1866/DDR3L-1866 kit, the price iscomparable to the price of a DDR4-2133/DDR4-2400 kit, and sometimes even to DDR4-3000. Such products from well-known brands cost around $70 and sometimes DDR4-based kits are a cheaper than DDR3-based kits.

Given the prices of DDR3-2133 and DDR3-2400 kits (~$100), it is evident that fast DDR3 modules are not maintaining their previous cost gap: at present they cost more that 16 GB DDR4-3200/CL16 kits. While comparing prices or performance of DDR3 and DDR4 solely based on their data-rates is ill advised, we can do on a larger scale to a certain degree. In previous reviews, for performance comparisons, the metric of data-rate dividied by CL (CAS Latency) is a broad enough calculation to group similar performing kits, and with two similar kits the higher frequency is often the higher performer. Even though the lower latencies of DDR3, the performance of DDR4 memory sub-systems at 3000 to 3200 MT/s should be higher than performance of DDR3 at high frequencies as a result. As it turns out, for enthusiasts seeking for high performance and who are willing to pay for it, it makes more sense to get DDR4 instead of DDR3 nowadays anyway due to system compatibility and predicted future releases. Keep in mind that manufacturers will reduce production output of DDR3 in the coming quarters, and as a result even if DRAM IC prices decrease, fewer will be made and as such prices may remain flat or increase over time, which will make upgrades expensive.



Analysts: PC DRAM Prices May Stabilize

As our frequent readers know, DRAM prices depend on supply and demand. While demand for DRAM depends on makers of computers and consumer electronics, supply depends on output of memory manufacturers. All sides will always try to cut down their costs, which is why the manufacturers introduce new manufacturing technologies every 18 to 24 months (producing more ICs per silicon wafer) and continuously try to improve their yields (higher percentage of usable ICs per wafer).

Since smaller fabrication processes can increase the production of memory ICs without needing to expand the manufacturing fabs, DRAM IC output as a result increases significantly every couple of years. In a bid to slowdown such natural decrease of costs and prices, according to analysts, leading DRAM manufacturers intend to slowdown transitions to smaller process nodes. This sounds slightly counter intuitive, as any manufacturer with a smaller node will have the advantage over the competition (anyone interested in this should go look at Game Theory).

Market observers from DRAMeXchange point out that while new process technologies are getting more expensive to develop, and fabs are getting costlier to equip, manufacturers of memory are cutting their research and development spending. This comes about as a result of decreasing revenues, which will inherently slow down adoption of new process technologies and therefore slow down reductions of DRAM IC costs and prices. Avril Wu, research director at DRAMeXchange, believes that in 2016 the total DRAM bit output will slow down and we will only see an increase of 23.1% year-over-year, compared to a 30% to 50% increase typically seen.

According to Mr. Wu, this is going to happen because of the slow transition to 10 nm class process technologies, as well as insufficient yields at 20/21 nm at other manufacturers (a claim that cannot be verified).

Samsung has already started mass production of DDR4-3200 ICs using its first-gen 10 nm-class fabrication technology (which some market observers call 18 nm) and plans to make LPDDR4 chips using the same process in the second half of the year. To stay competitive, Micron and SK Hynix will simply have to follow their rival with their 1x nm fabrication technologies. As a result, depending on yields, DRAM bit supply will increase, whereas DRAM prices will likely decrease if demand cannot catch up with supply.

18 nm and 16 nm process technologies will inevitably increase output of DRAM, but they are not the only factor that will affect production of computer memory in the coming years. Samsung’s giant manufacturing facility near Pyeongtaek, South Korea, will begin operations in 2017. The new fab is said to be two times larger than Samsung’s S1 plant in Giheung, South Korea, and is expected to accommodate up to five semiconductor production lines. The total cost of the initial fab required investment of 15.6 trillion won ($13.5 billion today) and in 2015 the company announced plans to expand it even further (by pouring in additional $8 to $9 billion). The fab will be used primarily for DRAM production, but Samsung could also use it to make other chips (i.e., NAND). We do not know exact production capacity of the new fab, but the S1 can process up to 170,000 wafers (300 mm wafers) per month and the addition of a fab twice as big will have a drastic effect on the DRAM supply. As a result, prices will be affected.

One predicition about DRAM supply gravitates around major purchasers of large about of ICs. One company gets mentioned a lot in this case: Apple. A good news story for DRAM makers in the short term should be that Apple is expected to release its next-generation iPhone in the second half of the year, and hence it will require a lot of memory (analysts predict that this will be LPDDR4). Quite naturally, manufacturers will have to shift production from PC DRAM to Mobile DRAM, which will lower supply of DDR3 and DDR4 amid increase of demand from PC makers in the second half of the year. As a result, memory makers will be able to sell more high-margin LPDDR4 memory (not only to Apple, of course) and either stabilize or even increase prices of mainstream memory.



Samsung Retains Market Leadership

According to DRAMeXchange, the global DRAM industry earned $8.56 billion revenue in Q1 2016, down from $12.1 billion in Q1 2015 (-29.3%) and from $10.27 billion in the fourth quarter of last year (-16.6%). Analysts have stated that the dropping prices for DRAM ICs and relatively low demand for computer memory as primary reasons for the revenue declines.

With a nearly 30% year-over-year decrease, it is not surprising that all DRAM manufacturers suffered from declining revenue and dropping margins, even though the industry stayed profitable as a whole in the first quarter.

Samsung remained the world’s largest supplier of DRAM in the first quarter with 46.4% of the market (up from 43.1% in Q1 2015), not challenged by its key rivals. Meanwhile, SK Hynix commanded 27.1% of DRAM shipments in the first quarter of 2016, slightly down from the previous quarters. The third largest DRAM maker, Micron, controlled 18.5% of the planet’s DRAM sales in Q1 2016, a significant decrease from 22.5% in the same period a year before.

But Smaller Vendors Pick Up Pace

By contrast, smaller makers like Nanya, Winbond, PowerChip and some other managed to increase their shares slightly in the first quarter of this year. The analysts believe that this happened because they increased their output and could simply supply more DRAM than usual.

Wrapping everything up, it is evident that the transition to DDR4 memory is proceeding rapidly and the industry will produce more DDR4 bits than DDR3 bits later this year. As a result, DDR4 should trend towards being cheaper than DDR3 when the amount of DDR4 will significantly outpace the older technology. It is also noteworthy that Samsung will be able to greatly benefit from its 18 nm fabrication technology in the second half of this year, as its rival Micron is not expected to be ready with its 16 nm manufacturing process before Q4. Thus, Samsung may be able to sell its high-performance and/or low-power DRAM ICs at a premium.

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